In collaboration with the UF/IFAS Animal Sciences Department and Ona Range Cattle Research and Education Center (REC)
Florida’s livestock industry is a vital component of the state’s agricultural economy, supporting over 1.56 million cattle and 385,000 horses and contributing more than $8.3 billion annually, while also providing employment, food security, and sustainable land management. Despite recent recovery from weather-related losses, the industry faces a renewed threat from the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax), an obligate parasitic fly that causes severe tissue damage, productivity losses, and sometimes death in livestock, wildlife, and, in rare cases, humans. Although eradicated from the United States in the 1960s, the parasite remains endemic in parts of South America and has recently re-emerged in the Caribbean, with past incursions in Florida and recent regional outbreaks underscoring the risk of reintroduction. Florida’s subtropical climate, high livestock densities, and strong trade, tourism, and wildlife connections make the state particularly vulnerable to future infestations, with potentially severe economic, ecological, and public health consequences.
This project will evaluate the potential economic impacts of hypothetical New World screwworm outbreaks in Florida and assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies using a scenario-based, interdisciplinary modeling framework. The research will integrate spatial risk mapping, stochastic outbreak simulations, and economic impact and cost–benefit analyses to estimate direct and indirect losses across cattle and equine sectors, including effects on trade, supply chains, rural economies, and worker health. Extensive engagement with livestock producers, veterinarians, extension agents, and industry organizations will ensure that the analysis reflects real-world production systems and decision-making constraints. The results will provide actionable insights to inform proactive surveillance, guide policy development, and strengthen emergency preparedness, supporting the long-term resilience and sustainability of Florida’s livestock industry.